Sequence-of-returns risk in retirement refers to the potential negative impact of the order in which investment returns occur on a retiree’s portfolio. This concept emerged from the broader understanding of investment risks, highlighting that not just the average return, but the timing of returns, can significantly affect an investor’s outcomes. For example, if a retiree experiences negative returns early in retirement, they may need to withdraw more from their portfolio to cover living expenses, depleting their savings faster and leaving less to recover when the market rebounds. Conversely, if positive returns occur early on, the portfolio has a better chance to grow and sustain withdrawals during later downturns. Financial advisors use this concept to emphasize the importance of a diversified portfolio and a strategic withdrawal plan, such as maintaining a cash reserve or adjusting withdrawals based on market performance, to mitigate the risks associated with the sequence of returns. By understanding and planning for this risk, retirees can better protect their savings and ensure a more secure financial future.


Emma and Jack had always been a dynamic duo, balancing their careers and personal lives with ease. When they found out they were expecting their first child, they were overjoyed and immediately began planning for their growing family’s future. Jack, a software engineer, and Emma, a marketing manager, knew that financial security was crucial, not just for themselves but for their newborn daughter, Lily. They were determined to create a solid financial foundation that would support them through retirement and provide for Lily’s education and future needs.

Jack had been maximizing his 401(k) contributions, taking advantage of the $23,500 limit, plus an additional $7,500 catch-up contribution since he was over 50, bringing his total to $31,000. Emma, who was younger, contributed $7,000 to her IRA, plus an extra $1,000 catch-up contribution. They also made sure to contribute to their Roth IRAs, with Jack contributing $7,000 and Emma contributing $7,000 as well. They knew that these accounts would provide tax-free growth and withdrawals in retirement, which would be beneficial for their long-term financial security.

In the early years of their retirement, the market experienced a significant upturn. Their investments grew substantially, and they felt confident about their financial future. For example, in the first three years, their portfolio saw annual returns of 10%, 12%, and 8%. This growth allowed them to enjoy their retirement, traveling and spending time with Lily, who was now in college. They also started receiving their Social Security benefits at their full retirement age of 67, which provided a steady income stream.

However, in the fourth year, the market took a sharp downturn, with a 15% loss. This was followed by another challenging year with a 10% decline. Despite these setbacks, Emma and Jack remembered their advisor’s advice about the importance of staying the course and not making hasty decisions. They continued their usual withdrawals but were cautious about their spending. They also relied more on their cash reserves to cover their expenses during these tough years.

The market eventually recovered, and the next two years saw positive returns of 7% and 9%. Their portfolio began to regain its value, and they felt more secure. However, when Jack turned 75, they had to start taking their Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from their traditional IRA. This added another layer of complexity to their financial planning, but their advisor helped them navigate it smoothly.

In their 77th year, the market experienced another downturn, with a 12% loss. This time, Emma and Jack were better prepared. They reduced their withdrawals and relied more on their Social Security benefits and cash reserves. They also rebalanced their portfolio to include more stable investments, reducing their exposure to market volatility. Over the next few years, the market saw mixed returns, with gains of 5% and 6% followed by a slight decline of 3%.

Through these ups and downs, Emma and Jack learned the importance of flexibility and the need to plan for unexpected market fluctuations. By understanding and managing sequence of returns risk, they ensured their financial well-being and continued to enjoy their golden years with their beloved daughter, Lily. Their careful planning and adaptability allowed them to navigate the challenges of retirement and maintain their financial security.


 

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